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Market Wire Update: It Is The Treasury Market Now
Forex Trader Note: The global equity markets have moved higher in recent trade and have been backed by strong oil ($79) and hard commodity moves. The 'Long Equity-and-Oil/Short Usd' correlation is not in play due to the fact that U.S. Treasury yields (dollar denominated) are paying close to 4% per year interest, and looking to increase that return in advance of any overnight or discount interest rate increases from the Federal Reserve.The imbalance between the Fed's 0.25% overnight rate, and the 4% 10 year Treasury note yield is creating a unique near-term situation that will have the dollar pulled around a little, until fair value is ultimately found against the major pairs.
The U.S. note yield will draw in buyers of the dollar at the same time that sellers of the dollar buy commodities and equities. That creates a huge question mark on dollar index valuations in the near-term, and the dead-lock may well hold until the next major U.S. economic release hits (read Non-farm Payroll, and ISM reports).
This strength of Usd separation between major currencies does not often happen, and is normally only seen at the trough (or peak) of global business cycles, as traders are seeing right now. The markets are at a swing point where the global business cycle is looking to move into a phase of expansion, and each economic region now has to set fair value on its currency, as the market moves away from dollar index trading, and moves towards individual interest rate differentials and forward growth expectations to value forex pairs.
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Photo: Sun News Publishing Online forex trading is a unlike ball-game that a demo-software may not handle on its own. You must avoid the 'get-rich-fleet' mentality, which pushes and more » |
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